Month: October 2019

Good afternoon – 

Growth slowed in the third quarter, with the numbers showing tariffs and the uncertainty created by the trade war have caused business investment to contract. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton best summed up the news, saying:

“Businesses don’t know where to place their bets and don’t know where to invest when they don’t know where the next tariffs are going to come from. That’s been one of the biggest weights on the U.S. economy.”

Small business owners, other analysts and experts agree:

“As business owners, we’re all a little bit scared of tariffs. China is a huge part of the global economy and the only place where some parts can be made.”

Grady Cope, President of Reata Engineering

“President Trump’s trade war is doing significant damage to the economy.”

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist At Moody’s Analytics

“The Trump Administration’s trade war with China has eroded business confidence, contributing to the second straight quarterly contraction in business investment.” 

Reuters

“Rattled by the uncertainty of Trump’s trade wars and a global economic slowdown, business investments tumbled the most in nearly four years, according to the report.” 

 Agence France-Presse

“The White House’s aggressive trade tactics, especially the back-and-forth tariff battle with China, have been a drag on business sentiment, with executives expressing concern in surveys and earnings calls.”

CNBC

“The trade deficit, which has widened as Chinese retaliatory tariffs have hurt farm sales, trimmed GDP growth by about 0.1 percentage-point in the third quarter.”

Associated Press

“The festering trade war with China has disrupted supply lines, raised raw material costs, hurt exports and made companies hesitant to spend.”

MarketWatch

And, as Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi points out, President Trump isn’t doing himself any favors either:

“So ironically, the president’s trade war is doing the most damage to the economies of those states that will matter most to his reelection bid.”

If you are interested in speaking with a company that has been impacted by tariffs and the trade war, please don’t hesitate to reach out. 

WASHINGTON, October 11, 2019 – Americans for Free Trade released the following statement from spokesperson Jonathan Gold after the United States and China reported progress in trade negotiations and announced a partial deal to de-escalate the trade war. “The progress made today is a positive step forward, and we are encouraged by the President delaying the anticipated tariff increase in October. We hope the news today demonstrates a renewed focus on ending the trade war and removing all tariffs. However, until tariffs are completely repealed, American businesses, farmers and consumers – not China – will continue paying the price of this trade war. We strongly encourage the Trump Administration to continue negotiating with China and come to a final deal that removes all tariffs as quickly as possible.” Americans for Free Trade is a coalition of more than 150 associations from every sector of the economy that are united in the fight against tariffs. ###

WASHINGTON, October 9, 2019 – As a delegation from China heads to Washington tomorrow to resume trade negotiations, Americans for Free Trade, a coalition of more than 150 associations from every sector of the U.S. economy, has released the following statement from spokesman Jonathan Gold.

“As trade negotiations resume in Washington, there is a lot at stake for the U.S. economy. We are more than a year into this trade war, and so far all we’ve seen is fewer American jobs, slower economic growth, significant uncertainty and rising costs for businesses of all sizes. China must be held accountable, but we cannot afford to continue down this path. We urge the administration to come to the negotiating table ready to make a deal, and if necessary, look for new tools to rein in China’s trade abuses by working with our allies. It’s time to put a stop to job-killing tariffs.”

The impact of the trade war and the immediate need for these negotiations to be successful was on full display today as a lumber mill in Washington state announced it will close its doors and lay off the mill’s 70 workers because of the trade war. This news follows a recent Wall Street Journal story that highlighted the terrible impact the trade war was having on the lumber industry. In addition, the American economy has seen a wave of bad news related to the trade war, including:

• “Tariffs are expected to cost American households up to $1000 a year.” (Yahoo! Finance, 9/20/19)
• “Escalating trade tensions with China undermined consumer confidence in September, underscoring the dangers of a conflict that has harmed key business sectors such as manufacturing and farming and poses a threat to a record U.S. economic expansion. The consumer confidence index fell to a three-month low of 125.1 this month from 134.2 in August, the privately run Conference Board said Tuesday.” (MarketWatch, 9/24/19)
• “In the surest sign yet that the trade war is hurting the American economy, manufacturing activity contracted for the second month in a row in September, falling to a level not seen in 10 years.” (CNN Business, 10/01/19)
• “ISM at 47.8 is bad but new export orders at 41 is even worse … There is no end in sight to this slowdown, the recession risk is real.” (Fox Business, 10/01/19)
• “Forecasting firm Moody’s Analytics estimates that Trump’s trade war with China has already reduced U.S. employment by 300,000 jobs, compared with likely employment levels absent the trade war.” (Yahoo! Finance, 9/10/19)
• “Consumers slowed spending and businesses cut back on investment in August, signs that a wobbling global economy and rising tariffs are sapping U.S. economic momentum.” (Wall Street Journal, 9/27/19)

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Americans for Free Trade, a coalition of more than 150 businesses and associations, has released the following statement after the U.S. economy added a lower than expected 136,000 jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. Economists say job creation would have been more robust without the U.S.-China tariffs.

“Uncertainty caused by trade continues to threaten the economic expansion we’ve seen over the last few years. Trump’s tariffs have cost 300,000 American jobs, led to the worst manufacturing numbers in a decade and driven thousands of farmers into bankruptcy. American workers have a lot at stake as trade talks resume next week. Americans need a real solution that holds China accountable and ends these harmful tariffs.” – Jonathan Gold, Americans for Free Trade spokesperson

BACKGROUND

Manufacturing Declines For Second Month In A Row To Lowest Level In Ten Years. “In the surest sign yet that the trade war is hurting the American economy, manufacturing activity contracted for the second month in a row in September, falling to a level not seen in 10 years.” (Anneken Tappe, “America’s factories just suffered their worst month in a decade”, CNN Business, 10/01/19)

Consumer Spending In August Show Signs That “Rising Tariffs Are Sapping US Economic Momentum.” “Consumers slowed spending and businesses cut back on investment in August, signs that a wobbling global economy and rising tariffs are sapping U.S. economic momentum.” (Sarah Chaney & Paul Kiernan, “Global Slowdown Spreads Across U.S. Economy,” Wall Street Journal, 9/27/19)

Trade War Causes Consumer Confidence Index To Fall To A Three-Month Low In September. “Escalating trade tensions with China undermined consumer confidence in September, underscoring the dangers of a conflict that has harmed key business sectors such as manufacturing and farming and poses a threat to a record U.S. economic expansion. The consumer confidence index fell to a three-month low of 125.1 this month from 134.2 in August, the privately run Conference Board said Tuesday.” (Jeffry Bartash, “U.S. consumer confidence sinks to 3-month low on trade worries, softer jobs market,” MarketWatch, 9/24/19)

As Of September, Trade War Has Killed 300,000 Jobs. “Forecasting firm Moody’s Analytics estimates that Trump’s trade war with China has already reduced U.S. employment by 300,000 jobs, compared with likely employment levels absent the trade war. That’s a combination of jobs eliminated by firms struggling with tariffs and other elements of the trade war, and jobs that would have been created but haven’t because of reduced economic activity.” (Rick Newman, “Trump’s trade war has killed 300,000 jobs,” Yahoo! Finance, 9/10/19)

Trade War Has Triggered A Global Manufacturing Recession. “The trade tensions have rattled financial markets and triggered a global manufacturing recession. The trade-driven downturn in manufacturing is threatening the longest U.S. economic expansion in history.” (Lucia Mutikani, “U.S. trade deficit shrinks, gap with China remains elevated,” Reuters, 9/4/19)